The elephant population is the net result of the additions by successful births and the deductions by death and capture. As with human population determinations, periodical surveys determine the elephant population but due to their forest habitats and daily movements over a vast area by each elephant, exact counts are impossible. However painstaking work by professionals in the field give reliable approximate counts.
For several years prior to 2015, public confidence on the Department of Wildlife Conservation (D-WLC) was rather eroded, misplaced and lacking due to suspected kidnaping efforts of calves from jungles, confirmed subsequently by the detection in 2015 of about sixty calves in illegal custody and the alleged disappearance for some time and alleged irregularities of the register of records of tame elephants maintained by the D-WLC. This scenario of the Department of Wildlife Conservation gave rise to a degree of sceptism of their activities for several years prior to 2015.
Therefore, the writer of this article starts with the 1993 surrey of wild elephants attempted by the D-WLC. This survey was unfortunately incomplete as no figures were obtained for the 'Northern' and ' Eastern' regions, due to the civil war which prevailed then but the elephant population for the rest of the island was estimated at 1967. However, in 1990, a survey of the elephant population of the entire island was done by Messrs. Santhiapillai and Jackson. (' The Asian Elephant - An action plan for its conservation' - IUSN / SSC, Asian elephant specialist group). Since both these surreys were done within 3 years of each other, it is reasonable to add the elephant population figures of the Northern and Eastern regions of the 1990 Santhiapillai and Jackson survey to the 1993 survey of the D- WLC and reconstruct an elephant population figure of the island for 1993. The figures of the Santhiapillai and Jackson survey corresponding to the D-WLC's Northern and Eastern regions are as follows,
This gives a reconstructed island elephant population of 2992 for 1993, with the addition of 1025 to 1967.
An accepted composition of the elephant population by many is as follows.
Clarke (1901)
Adult Bulls 20%
Breeding Cows 30%
Juveniles and Calves 50%
The breeding cycle of a she elephant is taken as 4 to 5 years and could be taken as 4.5 years for computations. (Gestation period is 24 months.)
Kurt (1969) says in ' Observations on Ceylon Elephants' in Loris Vol. XII, No 5, that only 60% of the calves born reach adulthood.
Based on the above assumptions, the annual increase of the elephant population of 2992 is 120, computed as follows,
The number of elephants killed during a period of 12 years from 1998 to 2010 in Sri Lanka is recorded as 1369, which gives an average loss annually for this period as 141. The highest killed per year during this period was 179 in 2007. The D- WLC's average of elephants killed due to the elephant - human conflict in rated as 120 per annum.
In comparing the addition of 120 elephants annually to the elephant population and a deduction of 120 elephants annually, the present elephant population is still 2992 or in other words, it could be said that the present elephant population in the wilds of Sri Lanka is not more than 3000.
Yasantha De Silva.
BSc. (Agriculture)
Email: ydesilva2013@gmail.com
